Electric vehicles – Implications from EU traffic escalation | OCBC Singapore
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Electric vehicles – Implications from EU traffic escalation

Electric vehicles – Implications from EU traffic escalation

  • June 2024
  • By Bank of Singapore
  • 10 mins read

Investment summary

EU confirms tariff escalation on BEVs but tariffs differ across carmakers, unlike in the US 

On 12 June 2024, the EU Commission pre-disclosed the level of provisional countervailing duties it would impose on imports of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) from China. These countervailing duties would be added on top of the ordinary import duty of 10% levied on imports of BEVs. Unlike the US tariff hikes, the EU tariff hikes differ across carmakers, with an additional 17.4% for BYD, 20% for Geely and as high as 38.1% for SAIC. Should discussions with Chinese authorities not lead to an effective solution, these provisional countervailing duties would be introduced from 4 July 2024. They would be collected only if and when definitive duties are imposed.

Tariff hike encourages consolidation among Chinese brands; PHEVs the fortuitous beneficiary? 

In our view, the tariff hike encourages consolidation among Chinese brands. This is very important for the automaking industry where economies of scale are crucial to eking out that extra bit of profit per car in a highly competitive market, which is what China’s EV market is experiencing now.

In addition, given the latest tariffs target mostly BEVs, we could see a greater influx of China-made plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) into Europe. 

European carmakers producing in China also impacted by higher tariffs; firms looking out for potential retaliation from China 

Certain European automakers – sandwiched on both sides 

It is also important to note that the tariffs will apply not only to Chinese carmakers, but also to global automakers which export EVs from China to Europe. 

Luxury/premium brands among most at risk from tariff escalation 

At this point in time, all eyes are on negotiation from the Chinese side and potential retaliation may be key to watch for investors. This could affect imported internal combustion engines (ICE) passenger vehicles (PVs) with engine sizes greater than 2.5 litres. Overall, in 2023, China imported about 250k PVs with engine sizes greater than 2.5 litres. Share prices of these companies have corrected by about 15-25% from their April peaks till mid-June 2024.

  • EU confirms tariff escalation on BEVs, but tariffs differ across carmakers, unlike in the US
  • Tariff hike encourages consolidation among Chinese brands; PHEVs the fortuitous beneficiary?
  • European carmakers producing in China also impacted by higher tariffs; firms looking out for potential retaliation from China.

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