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Opportunities can be found in 2025 despite greater volatility

Opportunities can be found in 2025 despite greater volatility

  • December 2024
  • By OCBC
  • 10 mins

2025 will be a year of profound changes for the global investment and geopolitical landscape, which portend heightened volatility as well as significant opportunities for investors adopting a nimble and risk-conscious approach to markets.

Structured Investments

Theme: Trump’s presidency should benefit some US banks

Trump’s second Presidency is expected to be broadly supportive of the US economy and corporate earnings, although inflation risks could cause the Fed to pause or even stop rate cuts after March 2025. The potential extension of Trump’s tax cuts enacted in 2017 and expiring end-2025, could lead to higher CAPEX and capital market activities by corporates, which will fuel demand for loans and fee income for banks. This in turn would boost the profitability of banks and support their share buybacks and dividends which benefits shareholders. The upward trajectory might continue given an uplift in sentiment and momentum. Some of the positives are likely priced in already, but still, some stocks like Citigroup and US Bancorp may still have positive upside potential.

  • Citigroup Inc has an international commercial banking franchise and a domestically focused retail banking unit. The commercial banking operation is Citi’s most unique business, as its global footprint is hard to replicate. This international presence will help Citigroup remain a bank of choice for cross-border companies. Citigroup would be a clear beneficiary from higher excess capital levels as this will bolster its ability for share buybacks below its tangible book value per share.
  • US Bancorp is the largest non-GSIB (global systemically important bank) in the US and has been one of the most profitable regional banks. The bank has national scale and a unique mix of fee-generating businesses, including payments, corporate trust, wealth management, and mortgage banking, all while avoiding investment banking. US Bancorp reported solid third-quarter results, with net interest income growth and net interest margin expansion from a quarter ago. Its latest strategy has been to focus on its payments ecosystem, expand its branch footprint, and pursue new acquisitions and partnerships.

Bonds

This bond is suitable for those looking for a bond issued by an international food service company.

Jollibee Worldwide Pte Ltd (USD)

This bond pays a coupon of 4.75% p.a. with a maturity date on 24 June 2030. There is a make-whole call at 50 basis points until 24 March 2030.

Jollibee Foods Corp is the largest food service and restaurant company in the Philippines, with over 6,400 owned and franchised stores globally. The group’s principal business comprises of the development, operation, and franchising of stores under the Jollibee, Chowking, Greenwich, Red Ribbon, Yonghe King, Hong Zhuang Yuan, Mang Inasal, Burger King, Highlands Coffee, PHO24, Hard Rock Cafe, Dunkin’ Donuts, Smashburger (SB), Panda Express and CBTL (Coffee Bean & Tea Leaf) brands.

The Group is also engaged in the manufacturing of food products, logistics services and property leasing to support of its operations. The Group has a presence outside the Philippines in 35 countries and territories.

The Group has experienced healthy sales and revenue growth with higher EBITDA margin. The margins are positively affected by operational leverage and the increasing sales volume that have been able to offset inflationary pressure and the rising cost from opening new stores.

Funds

Multi-asset Funds

PIMCO Balanced Income & Growth Fund

The PIMCO Balanced Income & Growth Fund is a global multi-sector strategy that seeks to combine PIMCO’s total return investment process and philosophy with income maximization. The Portfolio construction is founded on the principle of diversification across a broad range of equity and global fixed income securities. The fund has a historical annualised dividend yield of 6.89% p.a. (extracted from Bloomberg as of 31 October 2024).

Note: Past performance figures do not reflect future performance. Dividend figures are from Bloomberg, as of 31 October 2024.

Bond Funds

PIMCO GIS Income Fund

The PIMCO GIS Income Fund is designed for investors who seek steady income with a secondary goal of capital appreciation. It takes a broad-based approach to investing in income-generating bonds. The fund aims to achieve this by employing PIMCO’s best income-generating ideas across global fixed income sectors. The fund has a historical annualised dividend yield of 6.51% p.a. (extracted from Bloomberg as of 31 October 2024).

Note: Past performance figures do not reflect future performance. Dividend figures are from Bloomberg, as of 31 October 2024.

Equity Funds

AB Low Volatility Equity Portfolio Fund

The AB Low Volatility Equity Portfolio fund is a global equity fund seeking capital growth through securities of companies that the fund manager believes have lower volatility. Its investment approach focuses on quality, stability and price, where the fund seeks high quality stocks of companies with stable performance and predictable earnings, trading at attractive prices. The fund also has distribution share classes for investors looking for dividend income.

Currencies

The US Dollar (USD) index reached fresh highs in 2024 as markets continued to price in a less dovish US Federal Reserve (Fed), a possible return to US exceptionalism and policy uncertainty associated with Trump’s presidency. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has said that the US central bank does not need to be “in a hurry to lower rates” and that the current strength of the US economy allows it to approach decisions carefully. Markets have also cut back on expectations of the Fed’s rate-cut trajectory for 2025. Trump’s presidency will have implications on currency markets as shifts in fiscal, foreign and trade policies look set to take place under Trump’s presidency. Markets are also warming to the idea that Trump may hit the ground running in January 2025, unlike in 2016 when he was less prepared. Trump’s threat of tariffs is clearly one of the major worries, as it can undermine global trade, world economic growth, investment sentiment and it may even pose inflation risks. We are of the view that there may be a USD pullback in 1Q2025 even as the Fed rate cut cycle continues, but USD risks and trajectory are skewed to the upside over 2Q-4Q2025, as we take into consideration the potential risk of tariff implementation and the slower pace of Fed rate cuts. Our medium-term view is still for the USD to trend lower. The USD’s overvaluation, alongside rising debt and the twin budget and current account deficits, are some drivers that should eventually weigh on the USD.