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Brace for greater volatility but opportunities can still be found

Brace for greater volatility but opportunities can still be found

  • March 2025
  • By OCBC
  • 10 mins

Uncertainty about Trump’s tariffs policies going forward, and the response from the United States’ trading partners, means that global markets could be a headed for a period of greater volatility in the coming months. Nevertheless, we continue to maintain an overall risk-on stance in our tactical asset allocation strategy, underpinned by a relatively resilient global growth and earnings outlook. Stay invested but manage risk through portfolio diversification and dollar cost averaging.

Structured Investments

Theme: China’s Insurance Sector as a Growth Catalyst

China's recent initiative to channel hundreds of billions of yuan from state-owned insurers into the stock market marks a significant shift for the insurance sector and the broader financial landscape. The China Securities Regulatory Commission has urged insurers to invest at least 100 billion yuan in equities in the first half of 2025, with a target of allocating 30% of new annual premiums to A-shares. This strategy aims for mutual funds to increase the tradable market value of A-share holdings by at least 10% annually over the next three years, alongside promoting greater investments in equity products, lowering sales fees, and expanding exchange-traded funds.

  • Ping An Insurance founded in 1988 as a property and casualty insurer, has since diversified into banking, asset management, financial services, and healthcare, serving nearly 277 million retail customers and over 693 million internet users. Rising bond yields are anticipated to reduce reserve charges, boosting life insurance profits and overall earnings. The company’s technology divisions are thriving, leveraging synergies to enhance profitability through advanced technology that drives cross-sales and earnings growth. The listing of its tech units is unlocking new value opportunities, positioning Ping An for continued success in the evolving financial landscape.
  • AIA, a life insurance and wealth management company, operates in about 20 markets across Asia and the Pacific, with China accounting for 35% of total sales, followed by Hong Kong at 25% and Thailand at 15%. In 2024, demand for offshore insurance products among mainland Chinese visitors increased due to falling bank deposit rates and reduced pricing for onshore policies. AIA's strong management, solid capital position, effective distribution, and impressive growth momentum contribute to its valuation premium over other Asian insurers.

Bonds

This bond is suitable for those looking for a bond issued by a global beverage manufacturer and distributor.

Coca-Cola Co/The (USD)

This bond pays a coupon of 3.375% p.a. with maturity on 25 March 2027.

The Coca-Cola Company (TCCC) stands out as the world's largest manufacturer and distributor of non-alcoholic beverages, boasting a diverse portfolio that encompasses soft drinks, juices, bottled water, teas, and sports drinks. Operating in over 200 countries and territories, TCCC leverages its extensive distribution network and a collection of iconic brands, including Coca-Cola, Sprite, and Fanta, to maintain its leading position in the global beverage market.

For FY23, TCCC reported strong results, highlighted by a 205-basis point expansion in EBITDA margins despite increased marketing investments and currency headwinds. Regional performance included a 30% year-over-year increase in operating income in EMEA, a 10% rise in Latin America, and a 6% increase in Asia. Furthermore, TCCC improved its leverage ratio to 2.1x in Q4 2023, down from 2.2x the previous year, reflecting its commitment to organic growth and asset efficiency optimisation.

Funds

Multi-asset Funds

Lion-Bank of Singapore CIO Supertrends Multi Asset Fund

The Lion-BOS CIO Supertrends Multi-Asset Fund is a multi-asset strategy that aims to provide income and long-term capital growth by investing in a diversified portfolio of asset classes including global equities, ETFs, global bonds, the writing of equity covered call options and other collective investment schemes. Guided by research from Bank of Singapore’s award-winning Chief Investment Office, the fund takes a rigorous research-based approach to identify quality companies within equities and fixed income with resilient business models and robust fundamentals. The fund also has distribution share classes for investors looking for dividend income.

PIMCO Balanced Income & Growth Fund

The PIMCO Balanced Income & Growth Fund is a global multi-sector strategy that seeks to combine PIMCO’s total return investment process and philosophy with income maximization. The Portfolio construction is founded on the principle of diversification across a broad range of equity and global fixed income securities. The fund has a historical annualised dividend yield of 7.10% p.a.

Note: Past performance figures do not reflect future performance. Dividend figures are from Bloomberg, as of 28 Feb 2025.

Bond Funds

PIMCO GIS Income Fund

The PIMCO GIS Income Fund is designed for investors who seek steady income with a secondary goal of capital appreciation. It takes a broad-based approach to investing in income-generating bonds. The fund aims to achieve this by employing PIMCO’s best income-generating ideas across global fixed income sectors. The fund has a historical annualised dividend yield of 6.49% p.a.

Note: Past performance figures do not reflect future performance. Dividend figures are from Bloomberg, as of 28 Feb 2025.

M&G (Lux) Optimal Income

The M&G (Lux) Optimal Income Fund is a global bond fund that aims to provide a combination of capital growth and income to deliver a return based on exposure to optimal income streams in investment markets, while applying environmental, social and governance (ESG) criteria. The fund has a historical annualised dividend yield of 5.93% p.a.

Note: Past performance figures do not reflect future performance. Dividend figures are from Bloomberg, as of 28 Feb 2025.

Equity Funds

AB Low Volatility Equity Portfolio Fund

The AB Low Volatility Equity Portfolio fund is a global equity fund seeking capital growth through securities of companies that the fund manager believes have lower volatility. Its investment approach focuses on quality, stability and price, where the fund seeks high quality stocks of companies with stable performance and predictable earnings, trading at attractive prices. The fund also has distribution share classes for investors looking for dividend income.

Neuberger Berman Global Equity Megatrends Fund

The Neuberger Berman Global Equity Megatrends fund seeks to achieve long-term capital appreciation through investment in a high conviction, global all-cap equity portfolio of an expected 20-30 companies that are directly supported by multiple long-term, global secular shifts. The investment team follows a risk-managed approach to develop conviction, with particular focus on valuation discipline.

LionGlobal Asia Pacific Fund

The LionGlobal Asia Pacific Fund invests primarily in the equities markets of the Asia Pacific (ex-Japan) region across both emerging and developed markets, with no target industry or sector. The fund aims to achieve capital appreciation by adopting a disciplined investment process and a high conviction approach, focusing on identifying growth opportunities at reasonable prices.

Currencies

The US Dollar (USD) was choppy in February, driven by tariff threats and growing doubts about US exceptionalism. The delay in implementing tariffs, the prospect of peace talks in Ukraine, weaker US economic indicators, and a re-rating of Chinese tech stocks (thanks to DeepSeek and Chinese President Xi Jinping’s meeting with private sector business leaders) created a favourable environment for risk assets to recover while the USD retreated. But tariff concerns have yet to go away. The imposition of tariffs can undermine sentiments and lead to spikes in the USD, unless the implementation dates are delayed. We continue to expect two-way trades in the USD in March, driven by tariff uncertainty and fading US exceptionalism.